Julian Marcoux

Julian Marcoux

About

I am a fourth-year PhD candidate at the University of Lausanne (HEC), advised by Mathias Thoenig (chair), Aurélien Eyquem (co-chair), and Mathieu Couttenier (external).

My research uses tools from international economics and quantitative spatial economics to answer questions related to geoeconomics, mainly conflict and energy security.

I am a member of the Next-Geo cohort of the Kiel Institute and a 2026 Dartmouth Globalization PhD Fellow.

Research

Working Papers

The Gravity of Violence R&R · JPE
with Mathieu Couttenier, Thierry Mayer & Mathias Thoenig
PDF CEPR DP19527
Structural gravity equation of violence
Abstract

This paper presents a framework for estimating and simulating a quantitative spatial model of trade and violent conflict. In this new theoretical and empirical setup, designed for the analysis of bilateral flows, we first model the general equilibrium interactions between the economic and fighting margins in a micro-founded setup. We then show how the structural parameters can be recovered from the data in a simple and transparent way. A central element of the procedure consists in estimating a structural gravity equation of violence. Studying continental Africa over the period 1997 to 2023, we test the key predictions of the model and uncover new facts related to spatial frictions and conflicts. Finally, the model is simulated to quantify different policy-relevant experiments in weakly institutionalized contexts where insecurity is pervasive. Spatially-diffusing feedback loops between economic shocks and violence are one of the main findings of our analysis.

Work in Progress

Oil Shipping and Pirates
with Viktor Gradoux
Abstract

Coming soon!

The Spatial Economics of Peacekeeping
with Matteo Sestito & Mathias Thoenig
Abstract

Coming soon!

Teaching

Activities

Visiting